Winning With Stats
"The numbers are everywhere, but many of them are incredibly complicated. Good statistics should be reasonable to understand. They should help us get at the truth."
-The Sporting News, August 26, 2005
The need to change mountains of data into usable information is exactly where SportLab comes in. Ignoring the significance that statistics plays in predicting success is, unfortunately, all too prevalent in the NFL. Our goal is to help a single team for a long-term duration by providing the most valuable statistical analysis available. Compared to NFL data, BASELINE improves predictions by over 36%. The first team to actively integrate the statistical innovation that BASELINE provides will undoubtedly set the pace for the rest of the league.
The service that we offer could prove to be one of the most valuable investments that your organization could make. Simply put, we will give you the edge. You will see results. We will help you tap into a resource that many teams are hesitant to adopt. Our goal is not to replace scouts. They are obviously extremely important and using their judgments in our statistics only breeds more success.
The Carolina Panthers' 2000 Draft has provided one irrefutable example of the type of success that BASELINE could help your team achieve. In 2000 their draft selection was the following:
The players highlighted in green are players that BASELINE determined to be "High Value." Notice that the three high-value picks far outperformed the four low-value choices. Our research indicates that players rated as high-value are significantly (e.g., 22%) more likely to exceed expectations than are low-value picks. Pre-draft results such as those listed above provide you with an opportunity to re-think probable low-value choices and allocate scouting resources in an efficient manner.
Now let's examine the specific recommendations BASELINE's algorithms made for each of the "slots" the Panther's had in the 2000 draft.
Note that Deon Grant was actually drafted with the 57th pick, as recommended, therefore no new information other than confirmation is being provided. For all other choices, however, BASELINE offers an alternative that is worthy of serious consideration. The most extreme example is Tom Brady who was still available and strongly recommended with pick 182. Overall, the seven recommended picks include five clear starters, one strong contributor with starting potential and one bust.
This is just one example of what SportLab could help you accomplish. Please contact usto learn more.