SportLab
BETTER PLAYERS--BETTER TEAM
NEWS
4/22/10: Begin 2010 NFL draft.
4/21/10: Deadline for old club to exercise right of first refusal to restricted free agents.
4/19/10: SportLab Finalizes "need neutral" Draftboard.
4/15/10: Deadline for signing of offer sheets by restricted free agents.
4/1/10: Data consolidation for "need neutral" Draftboard begins.
3/9/10: 2010 updated algorithms implemented and pilot tested.
2/24/10-3/2/10: 2010 Scouting Combine
2/7/10: 2010 Super Bowl
1/30/10: 2009 Senior Bowl
1/7/10: 2009 BCS Championship Game
SportLab has developed BASELINETM, a decision support system that gives end users a competitive edge. BASELINETM improves NFL player performance predictions by over 36% compared to NFL scouting departments. BASELINE will help win more games and improve return on investment for all personnel decisions.
SportLab's BASELINETM technology...
• Uses state of the art, validated algorithms
• Converts thousands of data points into a single recommendation or rating that is meaningful to your decision makers
• Allows customizable predictors, criteria, reports and user interfaces. It is literally built around the preferences and priorities of your team
• Estimates when a player will be drafted as well as when a player should be drafted
• Allows users to intelligently create "what if" scenarios to decide upon a course of action such as a trade or contract extension
• Prioritizes information in a way that allows scouts to allocate their time as efficiently as possible.
Bottom line--any team using BASELINETM would have Tom Brady as their QB and Tony Romo backing him up.
CONTACT_
eMail
spencer_sportlabinc.com
phone:
906.226.2829
"The numbers are everywhere, but many of them are incredibly complicated. Good statistics should be reasonable to understand. They should help us get at the truth."
-The Sporting News, August 26, 2005
Research has consistently shown that using a clinical approach to making evaluations is far less accurate that using an algorithm-based approach. Currently, every NFL team uses a clinical approach. Prospects like Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Ryan Grant and Wes Welker were talented enough to go in early rounds, yet slipped to late rounds or out of the draft entirely. Prospects that are taken early often fail to live up to the hype. Ask the experts and they will often tell you that the draft is “more art then science.” Our goal is to use more science and less art when making player evaluations.
Simply put, teams using BASELINETM have a difficult to replicate competitive edge. Early adopters have a significant advantage over teams sticking to the clinical model, just as early adopters of the “Moneyball” approach in baseball had a significant advantage over teams sticking to traditional approaches. Please keep in mind that our goal is not to replace scouts. In fact, scouting ratings are the heart and soul of BASELINETM models. BASELINETM works better with scouts, and scouts work better with BASELINETM.
BASELINE--MORE SCIENCE LESS ART
The Carolina Panthers' 2000 Draft has provided one of a thousand irrefutable examples that BASELINETM works. The table below shows Carolina’'s picks along with BASELINETM evaluations of each pick as either high value (a good pick), or low value (a bad pick), and each player’'s performance in his first four years in the NFL (games played/games started). By definition, high value picks are expected to play in (1 point) and start (4 points) more games than an average player from the same position taken with the same overall pick.
The players highlighted in green are players that BASELINETM determined to be "High Value." Notice that the three high-value picks far outperformed the four low-value choices. Our research indicates that players rated as high-value are 22% more likely to exceed expectations than are low-value picks. Pre-draft results such as those listed above provide you with an opportunity to re-think probable low-value choices and allocate scouting resources in an efficient manner.
In Case Study 2, we'll examine the BASELINETM recommended choices for the Panthers to see what could have been . . .
Now let's examine the specific recommendations BASELINETM algorithms made for each of the "slots" the Panther's had in the 2000 draft.
Note that Deon Grant was actually drafted with the 57th pick, as recommended, therefore no new information other than confirmation is being provided. For all other choices, however, BASELINETM offers an alternative that is worthy of serious consideration. The most extreme example is Tom Brady who was still available and strongly recommended with pick 182. Overall, the seven recommended picks include five clear starters, one strong contributor with starting potential and one bust.
SPORTLAB
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Marquette, MI 49855
CONTACT
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